All about investing on the JSE with Simon Brown. Every Thursday.
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REITs Booming and Still More to Come (#605)
17:54
17:54
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17:54
China's Market Rebound Stimulus Measures: The Chinese government has initiated a stimulus, which includes cutting reserve requirements and lowering interest rates. While spending has not picked up fully, the China 50 ETF (in US dollars) has wiped out losses dating back to July 2022. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shows a similar trend. Market Sentimen…
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China to the Rescue and ZAR Powers Stronger. What's the Target? (#604)
17:45
17:45
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17:45
Summary: In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown delves into the latest developments in South African markets, focusing on the impact of China's major economic stimulus and the strengthening of the Rand. Key highlights include: Rand Strength: The Rand has seen notable appreciation, reaching levels of R17.12 to the US dollar. Simon discusses the …
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What's an asset light business and why's it a great investment (#603)
22:38
22:38
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22:38
Episode Overview: In this episode, Simon Brown dives into the current economic landscape with a focus on interest rates, inflation, and the state of the South African Rand (ZAR). He also explores asset-light businesses and why they make great investments, followed by a breakdown of the latest market activity and local company results. Rate Cuts & I…
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AngloPlat has a problem and it's only going to get worse (#602)
20:29
20:29
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20:29
Summary In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown discusses various topics including the troubles faced by Anglo Platinum, the performance of leisure stocks, Anglo Gold Ashanti's* acquisition of an Egyptian gold miner, and the impact of two pot withdrawals. He also touches on the future of PGMs, the growth of electric vehicles, and the psychology …
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Rates coming down next month, which sectors benefit most? (#601)
19:58
19:58
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19:58
Episode Summary: In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown delves into the impact of anticipated interest rate cuts and how they may affect various sectors and stocks. He shares his thoughts on potential beneficiaries like consumer stocks, REITs, and companies with high levels of debt. The episode also covers key updates on Nvidia's earnings, Nike…
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ETFSA listing an Actively Managed Balanced Foundation ETF, in conversation with Gareth Stobie
18:50
18:50
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18:50
ETFSA is listing an Actively Managed ETF, The ETFSA Balanced Foundation Prescient AMETF (JSE code: ETFSAB). Simon spoke with Gareth Stobie from ETFSA about the ETF, the listing process, where it fits in a portfolio and what it will be holding. IPO opens: 26 August 2024 Listing date: 02 September 2024 JSE code: ETFSAB TER: 0.52% ETFSAB…
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It's a bull market, until it isn't & 600 shows WHOOP (#600)
20:35
20:35
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20:35
In this landmark 600th episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown reflects on the podcast's journey from its beginnings as a radio show in 2008 to becoming a leading podcast for market insights. The episode covers a range of topics, from South Africa's local CPI and a strengthening Rand to the surprising twists in the gold market and a mixed bag of corpora…
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Is there really value in Sasol? (#599)
20:18
20:18
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20:18
Sasol's Struggles: Simon revisits Sasol's recent production and trading updates. Despite some positive news, the company's financials remain grim due to significant write-downs and a challenging pricing environment, especially in the chemical complex. With a forward PE ratio hovering around 3, Simon questions the actual value in Sasol and advises c…
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What really happened in Japan? Are markets safe again? (#598)
21:04
21:04
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21:04
Apple's Financial Performance and Buffett's Decision: Apple's recent financial results showed steady revenue growth across various segments including iPhone, MacBooks, and iPads. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Apple by half, sparking market speculation. The implications of Apple's valuation and Buffett's strategy in mainta…
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JSE delisting; can we spot them in advance and profit? (#597)
22:16
22:16
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22:16
Jerome Powell's Statement: Rates left unchanged in the US. Possible rate cuts on the table for September. US MPC meeting on 19 September. Data needed: improving inflation and higher unemployment. Oil and Gold Market Update: Brent Crude: Under pressure, signaling weak global demand. Lower highs trend since June 2022. Support at $72.50 and resistance…
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The President wants to turn South Africa into a construction site, which stocks benefit? (#596)
20:40
20:40
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20:40
Presidential Vision for Infrastructure Development: The South African President's recent speech emphasised making the country a hub of construction and infrastructure development. The potential for public-private partnerships and the types of infrastructure that might be developed, including roads, energy transmission, and public buildings. Stocks …
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Can South Africa do +3% GDP next year? (#595)
17:57
17:57
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17:57
SA GDP Growth Prospects IMF's projection: 0.9% GDP for South Africa this year. Potential factors for growth next year: Reduced load shedding could add 1% to GDP. Two-pot system introduction, expected to inject around 40 billion rand into the economy. Potential rate cuts: half a percent by the end of the year, possibly 1% by mid-next year. Inflation…
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100 Days of no load shedding, which stocks benefit the most? (#594)
21:21
21:21
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21:21
Load Shedding Update Milestone: 100 days of no load shedding by Friday. Factors: New capacity online, Kusile unit 5 (800 MW), upcoming additions from Medupi and Koeberg. Impact: Reduced GDP loss (previously 1.8% of GDP due to load shedding). Positive effect on inflation and economic stability. Winners: Retailers: Shoprite*, Pick n Pay, Spar (less e…
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Trading index futures; ALSI & ALMI (#593)
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21:14
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21:14
Key Takeaways MultiChoice Trading Opportunity: Potential for profit if the Canal+ deal goes through, despite current low stock prices. Futures Trading: Importance of understanding margin, liquidity, and strategy when trading ALSI and ALMI futures. Market Conditions: Current cheap valuation of SA Inc stocks presents opportunities, pending political …
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Can the GNU hold and send markets higher over the next five years? (#592)
15:53
15:53
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15:53
Face-Ripping Rally on the JSE: Surge attributed to the formation of a coalition government involving ANC, DA, and IFP. Top 40 index rose 3.5%, a significant increase not seen since February 2018. The rally, likened to the start of a marathon, suggests potential long-term growth, despite possible volatility. RAND and Resource Stocks: RAND trading un…
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Market loving clothing retailers and is Spar finally good for you? (#591)
21:32
21:32
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21:32
US Inflation: Core Inflation: Came in at 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.5% and previous 3.6%. Impact: Positive market reaction, with US Treasuries under pressure, Rand strengthening, and Dollar weakening. FOMC Outlook: Potential rate cuts anticipated towards the end of the year, possibly in November and December. Company Results: SPAR: Performance…
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Two-pot system is here, it's actually three pots and we've everything you need to know (#590)
19:24
19:24
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19:24
New Two-Pot Pension System: Details on the implementation and implications for retirement savings. Kicks in 1 September 2024 Can take up to R30k immediately, but this will be taxed. Thereafter 30% of contribution go into a savings pot your can take out, it will be taxed. Only use for an emergency, not holidays. Rainbow's Return to JSE: Analysis of …
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And now ~ woe is Woolies while Pepkor cleans up in smart phones (#589)
14:48
14:48
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14:48
Election Results Impact on Markets Slow ballot counting with three ballots, 18.7% counted. CSIR prediction at 5%: ANC 42%, DA 22%, EFF 9%, MK 14%, Patrick Alliance 2%. Market concerns about ANC forming a coalition. Rand fluctuations: From 18.34 on Tuesday to 18.61 currently. [caption id="attachment_42259" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Rand | 1pm…
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Nvidia juggernaut just keeps on going (#588)
22:05
22:05
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22:05
Nvidia's Financial Performance Nvidia's Q1 Results: Revenue up 262% year-on-year to $26 billion. Net income up 628% year-on-year to $14.9 billion. Gross margins at 78.9%. Stock Split: 10-for-1 stock split set for 7 June. Market Reaction: Stock traded over $1,000 in the aftermarket. Anglo American and BHP Group BHP's Third Offer: Anglo American reje…
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Anglo has a plan to beat BHP Group, is it any good? (#587)
20:02
20:02
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20:02
Anglo-American vs. BHP Group Anglo-American rejects BHP Group's offer, unveils its own restructuring plan. Anglo-American to divest De Beers, Anglo-American Platinum, coking coal in Western Australia, and reduce spending on UK fertilizer businesses. Focus on high-quality iron ore and copper assets. Discusses shareholder likelihood of accepting Angl…
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Local small caps; value or value trap? (#586)
19:37
19:37
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19:37
Introduction: Simon Brown kicks off the episode discussing the current state of the Rand, noting its stability leading up to the elections despite fluctuations. Speculation around ANC's momentum in the polls and potential coalition scenarios. The impact of the dollar's weakness on the Rand's performance. Structured Products: Simon delves into the c…
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Bye-bye rate cuts an Anglo American, hello China
22:04
22:04
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22:04
Rate Cuts and Economic Outlook Jerome Powell's statement from the FOMC meeting: "Inflation remains too high and the path forward is uncertain." No rate cut was announced at the FOMC meeting. Speculation on upcoming rate cut possibilities and their impact on the economy. Local economic outlook and potential changes due to the upcoming election. BHP …
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Capitec, great results. Very expensive stock. Sasol just a horror. (#584)
19:28
19:28
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19:28
ff Capitec Results: Simon analyzes Capitec's recent financial results, highlighting strong metrics such as return on equity, active clients, and app usage. However, he notes concerns about the bank's expensive valuation compared to its competitors. SARB Monetary Policy Review: Simon discusses the South African Reserve Bank's recent review, indicati…
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Purple Group Thrives, gold flies (#583)
21:34
21:34
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21:34
UK and Local Inflation: UK inflation surprises at 3.2%, lowest in over two years. US Fed unlikely to cut rates soon, waiting for FOMC meetings. South Africa's CPI data for March at 5.3%, showing a positive trend. Potential for SA rate cuts, depending on US decisions. [caption id="attachment_41866" align="aligncenter" width="849"] SA Inflation 5.3% …
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SARB wants a lower inflation target; how, why & implications?
18:04
18:04
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18:04
kk Sasol Secunda Reprieve Recap of Sasol's recent developments. Minister's agreement to Sasol's appeal regarding emissions at Secunda. Stock bounce and support level analysis. Target prices discussion and outlook for Sasol. PGM Miners' Performance Analysis of platinum group metal (PGM) miners' performance. Notable increases in stock prices. Conside…
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