Risk vs uncertainty in the Middle East, dollar in focus, and new Asia market coverage

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

What’s going to happen in this Middle East crisis? The fact that no one knows is the key point for investors grappling with an exceptionally fluid situation.

In this week’s podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores the scenarios we've outlined so clients can assess how the Israel-Iran conflict could unfold. He also draws a distinction between risk and uncertainty – a critical distinction that matters when trying to understand the implications of global crises like this one.

Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, joins to explain how markets have been reacting and what kind of volatility to expect as decisions near on US involvement in Israeli strikes, the imposition of ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, and a crucial vote on US tax cuts in the Senate.

Also in this episode, Kiran Raichura, our Chief Commercial Real Estate Economist, previews our new Asia-Pacific CRE coverage, explains why we’re expanding now, what clients can expect, and what our early analysis says about the region’s investment recovery.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Read: Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenarios

Key Issue: Iran-Israel conflict
Drop-In: Russia’s rising macro and market risks as war drags on
Roundtable: Opportunities and risks in the shadow of US trade protectionism