David Coletto: The Precarity Mindset and the 2025 Election

The Missing Middle with Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux

In this conversation, conservative pundit Sabrina Maddeaux and economist Mike Moffatt discuss the evolving landscape of political polling with David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data. They explore the significant shifts in voter sentiment influenced by key events such as Justin Trudeau's exit, Mark Carney's rise, and the impact of Donald Trump. The discussion delves into demographic changes, the emergence of a precarity mindset among voters, and the implications for the Liberal Party and the NDP. The conversation also touches on regional dynamics, particularly in Quebec, and the challenges of predicting voter turnout in the upcoming federal election.

00:00 Introduction

01:24 Shifting Political Landscape in Canada

04:08 Is this temporary or permanent?

05:13 The demographic shift in people’s attitudes towards the Liberals

06:52 Understanding the precarity mindset

09:40 Why Mark Carney has an advantage

12:19 The collapse of the NDP vote?

15:50 How do projection models work?

17:51 The incumbency factor

20:33 Regional dynamics in the Quebec factor

23:20 Undecided voters and voter turnout

25:05 Election call predictions

26:36 Remembering Gordon Brown

Links

"Ok, Boomer" - Why Baby Boomers might be the Liberal Party's saviours

Gordon Brown

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.