Week Head September 29th: Jobs, Tariffs, and Tensions

The Financial Source Podcast

Show notes

Episode summary:
We break down a dollar-friendly backdrop going into U.S. labor data, fresh U.S. tariff measures across pharmaceuticals, furniture, and heavy trucks, and the latest geopolitical flashpoints moving oil, metals, and havens. We also flag what to watch from the RBA, Eurozone prices, and BOJ releases, plus the key levels in FX, gold, oil, and copper.

Timestamps
00:00 – Intro: Why the dollar has momentum into a data-heavy week
02:00 – FX setup: Dollar asymmetry into NFP; EUR anchored to U.S. data; USD/JPY near 150 after soft Tokyo CPI; GBP weighed by domestic fiscal worries; AUD/NZD steady; PBoC fix steadies CNH
07:10 – Commodities: Oil pauses; gold consolidates near recent highs; copper cools after Grasberg disruption; French LNG terminals face force majeure; Iraqi pipeline logistics in focus
12:40 – Trade & tariffs: New U.S. tariffs—100% on branded/pharma (unless production is U.S.-sited), 50% on kitchen cabinets/vanities, 30% on upholstered furniture, 25% on heavy trucks; plan under review to tie semiconductor market access to domestic/overseas output ratios; TikTok order with U.S. investor control of the algorithm; Japan notes tariff parity, Turkey discusses tariff facilitation with U.S.
18:20 – Central banks: RBA likely on hold with guidance the key; Eurozone inflation prints seen near target on volatile components; BOJ opinions/Tankan frame the yen backdrop
22:45 – Geopolitics: NATO airspace warnings after incursions; drone activity near Danish airports; IAEA notes drone detonation near South Ukraine NPP; Gaza diplomacy updates; Iran–IAEA stance and Iran–Russia nuclear build; Korean peninsula maritime incident
28:30 – Data calendar (week ahead): JOLTS (Tue), ISM Manufacturing & ADP (Wed), Jobless Claims (Thu), U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri); ISM Services follows after NFP this time
31:15 – Market levels to watch:
• DXY: firm bias into NFP
• USD/JPY: 150.00 in view on rate-spread dynamics
• EUR/USD: 1.1650–1.1680 area (50-DMA nearby)
• Gold: support ~3,700; resistance ~3,800
• Copper (LME 3M): watch the 10,000/t handle after supply headlines
• Crude: rangebound with geopolitics vs. demand signals

Key takeaways:

• The dollar’s upside risk is larger on a strong jobs print than the downside risk is on a small miss; only a notably weak NFP would meaningfully undercut the greenback.
• Tariffs remain a live macro driver for prices, supply chains, and FX—particularly across pharma, furniture, heavy trucks, and potentially semiconductors.
• Geopolitical risk remains elevated in Europe and the Middle East, keeping a floor under havens and periodically nudging oil and gas.