Week Head September 1st: Focus is squarely on U.S. labor data

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (Week of Sept 1, 2025)

This week’s focus is squarely on U.S. labor data and its implications for central bank policy, FX, and commodities:

• FX & Fed Policy:
  Markets are fixated on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls after last month’s weak print and sharp downward revisions. Consensus looks for ~75k jobs, unemployment at 4.3%, and wage growth at 3.7% y/y. Fed easing expectations are firmly priced for September, with December also in view, but the trajectory depends on how labor data comes in. ECB eyes euro area flash HICP (headline ~2.0%, super-core ~2.2%), while UK retail sales and Canada’s jobs report will test policy bias at the BoE and BoC.
• Commodities:
  Gold trades just above $3,400, highly sensitive to payrolls. A weak U.S. jobs report could push bullion toward prior highs near $3,500; stronger labor data could see support tested at $3,400 and $3,380. Oil and base metals consolidate into the heavy data calendar, with sentiment closely tied to Fed and global growth expectations.
• Trade & Tariffs:
  U.S. tariff changes and cross-border policy moves continue to influence trade-sensitive currencies, with Canada’s and Europe’s policy debates directly monitoring spillovers from U.S. trade measures.
• Geopolitics:
  While quieter on immediate headlines, tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East remain latent sources of safe-haven demand. Any escalation could quickly channel into FX and precious metals.

Key watchpoints: U.S. payrolls (Sept 5), eurozone flash inflation, UK retail sales, and Canada’s jobs report – all setting the tone for FX and gold in the week ahead.