Week Head August 25th: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes – Week Ahead Market Briefing

In this episode, we break down the key developments in FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics driving markets this week:

• FX: Dollar stays firm ahead of U.S. PCE data. Australia’s CPI and Tokyo CPI in Japan will be crucial for central bank expectations. EUR/USD trades heavy after weak German GDP revisions, while GBP consolidates into the UK holiday. USD/JPY holds near 148 after firmer Japanese core inflation.
• Commodities: Oil steadies after Hungary confirmed Druzhba pipeline disruptions from attacks near the Russia–Belarus border. Gold remains subdued under dollar strength, while copper consolidates after last week’s bounce. China moves to tighten control of rare earth mining and processing.
• Trade & Tariffs: Xi Jinping will skip October’s ASEAN Summit, ending hopes of a Trump–Xi meeting, with Premier Li attending instead. South Korea and the U.S. hold talks on defense spending, arms purchases, and nuclear cooperation. Washington weighs reallocating $2bn in CHIPS Act funding to critical minerals.
• Geopolitics:
  • Ukraine hit by new Russian missile and drone strikes; Druzhba pipeline deliveries suspended.
  • Israel approves military plans against Hamas as ceasefire negotiations loom.
  • Iran to hold joint nuclear talks with European counterparts; U.S. announces new sanctions on Iran-linked shipping.
  • China condemns U.S. naval activity near Venezuela while Chinese firms commit over $1bn to Venezuelan oilfields.
  • North Korea’s Kim praises overseas military operations, reinforcing the regime’s messaging.

Takeaway: The week ahead will be shaped by inflation data from Asia, U.S. PCE on Friday, and escalating geopolitical risks from Ukraine to Gaza and Venezuela — all while markets brace for Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks.