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September 5th, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing
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Show Notes – Daily European Opening Briefing (Sept 5, 2025)
Tariffs & Trade
- Trump to impose “fairly substantial” chip tariffs soon; Apple and other major US tech firms spared.
- US–Japan trade deal formally implemented: 15% tariff baseline on most Japanese imports, 75% increase in US rice procurements, and a USD 550bn investment package.
- Japan says auto tariff reductions will take effect within two weeks.
- Mexico considering tariffs on imports from countries without trade deals, including China.
- Ecuador advancing toward a trade agreement with the US.
- Anthropic halts AI sales to Chinese- and adversary-linked entities to avoid military use.
FX
- USD softer ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls, pressured by weak labor data and dovish Fed commentary.
- EUR steady above 1.16, capped by lack of fresh eurozone drivers.
- GBP firmer with traders awaiting UK retail sales data.
- JPY supported by fastest wage growth in seven months and first positive real earnings since January.
- AUD/NZD modestly higher but gains capped by quiet domestic news flow.
Commodities
- Oil flat after recent declines; OPEC+ output rose 360k bpd in August.
- Russia’s Novak said no current discussion on production increases; OPEC+ meeting set for Sunday.
- Rosneft to expand oil supplies to China via Kazakhstan; Power of Siberia pipeline expansion underway.
- Gold steady above USD 3,500/oz ahead of NFP.
- Copper gained on improved Asia risk appetite.
Geopolitics
- Gaza: IDF says 40% of Gaza City under its control; US envoy met Qatari officials in Paris on possible hostage deal.
- Ukraine: Trump says he will soon speak with Putin and “get the war settled.” US to cut some security funds for European border states to press NATO allies. Kremlin rules out foreign troop guarantees for Ukraine.
- North Korea–China: Kim met Xi in Beijing, pledged closer cooperation and support for China’s sovereignty.
- Venezuela: Two Venezuelan military aircraft flew near a US Navy vessel in international waters.
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