September 2nd, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing
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Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (2 Sept 2025)
Today’s update covers FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics:
- FX: Dollar firm after U.S. holiday, supported by GBP and JPY selling. Euro slips back to 1.16 handle after eurozone inflation ticks up to 2.1%. Yen weaker on BoJ’s Himino comments supporting gradual rate hikes, compounded by political instability in Japan. Sterling drops through 1.35 as UK fiscal concerns grow ahead of the autumn budget. Antipodeans softer, yuan fix set firmer at 7.1089.
- Commodities: Oil edges higher despite stronger dollar and risk aversion, supported by geopolitical tensions in Gaza and Ukraine. Gold set a fresh record above $3,500/oz before easing back, silver retraced after strong gains, and copper remains rangebound. EU moves to close loopholes ahead of 2027 Russian gas ban. Gazprom confirms 30-year Power of Siberia 2 gas deal with China; Russian oil loadings from Tuapse set to rise in September. Shell to begin Pernis refinery turnaround mid-month.
- Trade & Tariffs: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent to defend Trump tariffs at Supreme Court, confident of success. Washington presses Europe to act against India’s Russian oil imports, labels China and India “bad actors.” Brazil’s Lula calls BRICS meeting for Sept 8 on U.S. tariffs. EU’s Costa stresses diplomacy over escalation with Washington. Japan denies agreeing to cut farm tariffs, insists no gap with U.S. in trade talks. India confirms bilateral trade discussions with the U.S.
- Geopolitics: Israel weighs full control of West Bank; major explosions reported in Gaza. Iran undecided on continuing IAEA negotiations. Putin insists Ukraine settlement must address “root causes” and rejects NATO membership, while also claiming Russia has no intent to attack Europe. Macron confirms Paris meeting this week on Ukraine security guarantees. NATO concerned about GPS jamming, Finland warns peace deal still distant. Xi meets Putin, affirming close ties; Kim Jong-un travels to China ahead of Victory Day parade.
Key focus: U.S. ISM manufacturing data today, eurozone inflation snapshot, and building anticipation for Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
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