September 25th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics Briefing (25 Sep 2025)

FX

• USD steady into a heavy U.S. data slate (durables, final Q2 GDP/PCE, claims, trade balance).
• EUR little changed around the mid-1.17s on a light Eurozone calendar; ECB’s Kazimir says the inflation goal is met and policy will shift only if required.
• GBP broadly stable near 1.3550 as BoE’s Greene argues policy should offset supply shocks and highlights upside inflation risks.
• SNB holds at 0.00%, reiterates policy is expansive and it stands ready to operate in FX markets if needed; Schlegel says the bar to return to negative rates is high.
• USD/JPY firm after BoJ minutes showed some members favor hiking “when possible” with policy still below neutral.
• PBoC sets USD/CNY fix at 7.1118, a tighter-than-expected anchor ahead of U.S. releases.

Commodities

• Crude eases after two days of gains amid a softer risk tone and no fresh supply shocks; markets still watch Russia-related disruptions and Middle East headlines.
• Gold resumes its climb after a brief pause, supported by quarter-end positioning and event risk after this month’s run toward the USD 3,800/oz area.
• Copper extends prior strength on supply concerns and China policy signals; Beijing is studying tighter regulation of copper smelting capacity.

Trade, Tariffs & Policy

• White House says the president will sign executive orders today; reporting points to the TikTok deal, with media noting all parties have agreed to terms.
• Chinese technical delegation at U.S. Treasury for staff-level talks on trade and the economy (not a negotiation round; TikTok not on the agenda).
• U.S. opens a Section 232 national-security probe into imports of robotics, machinery and medical devices.
• Washington discusses broader rare-earth measures with G7/EU to counter price dumping (options include tariffs or price floors).
• U.S. warns European countries against restricting air travel in breach of bilateral agreements.
• Treasury Sec. Bessent underscores a strong U.S.–South Korea alliance; Seoul flags discussion of an FX swap.
• Planning continues for a late-October U.S. presidential visit to Japan; EU’s von der Leyen reports a “good and frank” trade exchange with China’s Li Qiang.
• U.S. budget office instructs agencies to prepare workforce-reduction plans in case of a government shutdown.

Geopolitics

• Denmark reports unidentified drones over four airports, briefly closing one; authorities later say drones are no longer present over Aalborg, note incidents at military facilities, and may raise the national emergency posture.
• European officials express concern over transatlantic reliability on Ukraine policy amid shifting rhetoric.
• France, Germany and the U.K. trigger the UN “snapback” mechanism to reimpose Iran sanctions, insisting Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon; leaders urge cooperation with inspectors.
• U.S. Middle East outreach continues, with officials indicating ongoing contact with Iran alongside regional diplomacy.

What to Watch Next

• U.S. data: durable goods, final Q2 GDP/PCE, jobless claims, advance goods trade balance.
• Fed speakers: Goolsbee, Williams, Schmid, Bowman, Logan, Barr, Daly.
• SNB press follow-through and any CHF commentary; Banxico decision later.
• Any updates on the executive orders/TikTok signing and developments on Denmark’s drone incidents.