September 22nd, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics) — 22 Sep 2025

FX & Central Banks

• USD: DXY briefly touched 97.82 (above Friday’s 97.80) before easing; heavy Fed-speak slate today (Williams, Musalem, Hammack, Barkin) plus Governor Miran’s dissent speech release.
• EUR: EUR/USD recovered above 1.1750 after testing Friday’s low at 1.1728; ECB’s Kazaks flagged ample data by December, while Šimkus argued for a December rate cut to safely reach 2%.
• GBP: GBP/USD probed 1.35; watch BoE Pill 13:30 London and Bailey 19:00.
• JPY: USD/JPY 148.37 overnight (highest since Sep 8); focus on LDP leadership race. FNN poll: Takaichi 28.3%; she won’t rule out cutting sales tax on food. Koizumi open to broader sales-tax discussion.
• AUD/CNY: AUD steady after RBA Gov. Bullock’s balanced remarks and China’s steel-capacity curbs. PBoC fix USD/CNY 7.1106 (vs 7.1159 exp); LPRs unchanged at 3.00% (1Y) and 3.50% (5Y). Liquidity: CNY 240.5bn 7-day RR at 1.40% and CNY 300bn 14-day RR (first in 8 months).
• U.S. policy backdrop: Fed’s Miran: disinflation in play, policy restrictive, “we are in an easing cycle.” Daly: labor market softened “quite a bit.”
• U.S. shutdown risk: Funding deadline Sep 30; Senate returns Sep 29, House Oct 7.

Commodities

• Crude oil: Initially firmer on geopolitics, then softer; day ranges WTI USD 62.23–63.00/bbl, Brent USD 66.53–67.31/bbl.
• Drivers: Estonia triggers NATO Article 4 after Russian MiG-31 incursion; U.S. President says Europe will not be allowed to buy Russian oil much longer. Ukraine drones reportedly hit oil infrastructure tied to Novorossiysk exports. Iraq says exports increased as voluntary OPEC+ cuts wind down. NHC: new tropical storm south of Mexico, offshore track expected.
• Gold: Fresh all-time high at USD 3,726/oz; earlier European peak USD 3,722.56/oz amid elevated geopolitics and event risk (PMIs, PCE, Fed-speak).
• Copper/Metals: 3M LME copper back above USD 10k as risk tone stabilizes. Codelco: biggest mine’s full-production return delayed after July tunnel collapse. China to tighten steel capacity controls and ban new capacity.

Trade & Tariffs

• U.S.–China: First U.S. House delegation to China since 2019; President says “progress on several important issues” and TikTok will be protected. China MOFCOM urges open, fair, non-discriminatory U.S. environment for Chinese firms and stable bilateral economic ties.
• Taiwan linkage: Reports U.S. withheld >USD 400mn in Taiwan military aid this summer while pursuing a trade deal and possible summit with China’s leadership.
• EU: Set to block big tech from a new financial data-sharing system.
• H-1B: Plan to raise fee to USD 100k; aide says a proclamation will implement; officials note firms would pay USD 100k/yr per H-1B.
• Korea/Trilateral: South Korea’s president warns agreeing to USD 350bn U.S. investment demand could risk a financial crisis; seeks quick resolution of tariff issues. South Korea–U.S.–Japan FMs to meet in New York this week.

Geopolitics

• Baltic/NATO: Estonia requests Article 4 after a 12-minute incursion by three Russian MiG-31s near Vaindloo Island; NAC to convene early week, UNSC to meet at Estonia’s request. Germany scrambled jets over the Baltic; U.K. Typhoons flew first air-defense missions over Poland.
• Russia–Ukraine: Kyiv says the EU’s 19th sanctions package is close; U.S. presses Europe to stop buying Russian oil. Russia reports a Crimea drone strike (2 killed, 15 injured); Ukraine’s SBU cites strikes on oil pumping stations for Novorossiysk exports.
• Middle East: Israeli official says full/partial West Bank annexation is under consideration after U.K. recognition of Palestinian statehood. U.K., Canada, Portugal, Australia recognized Palestine; Israel rejects unilateral recognition; PA FM says a two-state solution is possible. Israel reports killing a Hezbollah member in south Lebanon, acknowledging civilian casualties. U.S. President to meet Arab leaders Tuesday on Gaza.
• Korean Peninsula: South Korea flags Russia–North Korea military cooperation as a “significant threat.” Kim Jong Un: denuclearisation “no longer valid,” no talks with U.S. under current terms.

Today’s Notable Times (market-relevant)

• BoE: Pill 13:30 London, Bailey 19:00.
• Fed: Williams, Musalem, Hammack, Barkin; Miran’s dissent speech publication.
• Canada: Producer Prices (Aug).
• U.S.: Secretary of State remarks later today; UNGA speech this week.