October 9th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (Thu, 9 Oct 2025, US Open)

Focus: FX, commodities, trade/tariffs, geopolitics
Excluded: Equities, fixed income (unless tied to FX), crypto

FX

• USD: Extends gains; shutdown data void shifts focus to Fed speak rather than prints.
• JPY: USD/JPY ~153 after steady Asia; markets watch Japan’s political handover timing and any official pushback on FX pace.
• EUR: Subdued but steadier as France signals a new PM path and budget route by year-end.
• GBP: Softer on crosses ahead of BoE commentary; limited UK data impulses.
• NZD/AUD: NZD still heavy post-RBNZ -50 bp with guidance open to more cuts; AUD mixed despite China’s post-holiday return.

Commodities

• Gold: Pauses near $4,000/oz after setting a new ATH (~$4,059); haven bid persists amid headline volatility.
• Oil: Slightly higher despite Gaza ceasefire headlines; market balances reduced disruption risk with China demand resumption and supply signals.
• Metals: Copper holds gains as Chinese markets reopen; broader complex firmer on improved liquidity.

Trade, Tariffs & Tech Policy

• China: New export controls (effective Dec 1) on rare earths and related equipment; tighter rules for dual-use and military end-users; added items tied to lithium batteries, artificial graphite anodes, and super-hard materials.
• US–Canada: Ottawa says scope for bilateral deals alongside USMCA (steel/auto focus).
• US pharma tariffs: Reported consideration to exclude generics (decision not final).
• Vietnam–US: Negotiators traveling Oct/Nov to continue trade talks.
• China lists: Several foreign firms added to “unreliable entities” roster, signaling a tighter operating climate for defense/sensitive tech.

Geopolitics

• Middle East (Gaza): First-phase ceasefire terms agreed (hostage-prisoner exchange; initial Israeli pullback to an agreed line). Conflicting timing reports; cabinet approval expected, with initial releases possibly this weekend.
• Taiwan/China: Taipei warns of intensified hybrid warfare (AI-enabled cyber ops, gray-zone pressure) targeting infrastructure and public trust.
• Russia–Ukraine: Kyiv flags pressure near Pokrovsk; warns Russian fuel supply could tighten from Ukrainian strikes; Kremlin says US–Russia dialogue on a “serious pause.”
• UN peacekeeping: Plans to reduce deployments ~25% due to funding constraints.

Watch next: USD vs. JPY/EUR/GBP levels, NZD reaction post-RBNZ, gold around $4k, oil as China demand normalizes, concrete steps on rare-earth controls and US–Canada trade items, and the Gaza ceasefire’s move from agreement to implementation.