October 22nd, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics)

Date: Wednesday, 22 October 2025

Episode Summary

Today’s briefing spotlights a flat USD with sterling under pressure after softer UK CPI, a steady EUR, and USD/JPY capped below 152. In commodities, crude is firmer on renewed supply-risk headlines out of Ukraine and a surprise US crude draw, while gold remains volatile around the USD 4,000/oz area. The policy lane is busy: the US reiterates steep China tariffs from Nov 1, the US–India deal inches closer, Brussels intensifies export-control talks with Beijing, and Seoul presses China on shipbuilding and rare-earths. Geopolitically, updates span the Russia–Ukraine conflict, US diplomacy in Israel, a North Korean missile launch, and South China Sea frictions.

Key Topics Covered

• FX: USD broadly flat; GBP weaker post-UK CPI; EUR steady in tight ranges; USD/JPY contained <152; PBoC sets a stronger-than-expected yuan fix (7.0954).
• Commodities:
  • Oil: Bid on reports of Russian strikes damaging Ukrainian energy assets (Poltava) and a surprise ~3 mb crude draw in US private data; US to purchase 1 mb for the SPR (deliveries late-2025/early-2026).
  • Metals: Gold volatile around ~USD 4,000/oz after Tuesday’s outsized selloff; copper steadies after prior weakness.
• Trade & Tariffs:
  • US–China: Tariffs flagged to rise to ~155% on Nov 1; Trump–Xi meeting still uncertain.
  • US–India: Deal reportedly near to cut tariffs on Indian exports from ~50% to ~15–16%.
  • EU–China: Brussels to intensify export-control and rare-earth discussions; Germany/France elevate at EU leaders’ summit.
  • South Korea–China: Seoul protests shipbuilding curbs and rare-earth limits; notes differences with US over tariffs.
  • Regional FX backstops: Reported exploration of a China–Japan–South Korea three-way currency swap.
  • US admin actions: CBP processing shift post-de-minimis; China opens anti-dumping probe on some US analog IC chips.
• Geopolitics:
  • Russia–Ukraine: Moscow cites assurances to restore power at Zaporizhia; Kyiv reports strikes in Russia’s Bryansk; no confirmed Trump–Putin meeting yet.
  • Middle East: US Secretary of State Rubio expected to visit Israel this week.
  • Korean Peninsula: North Korea launches a ballistic missile; no Japan EEZ damage.
  • South China Sea: China warns it will “block and drive away” Australian aircraft near the Paracels.
  • Americas: US urging Argentina to limit Chinese influence over strategic projects.