October 20th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing — 20 Oct 2025

FX

• USD (DXY): Flat/subdued as a modestly better U.S.–China tone offsets shutdown/data uncertainty.
• EUR: Slightly firmer despite S&P’s downgrade of France; ECB rhetoric steady; German PPI softer.
• JPY: Edged back from 151 after BoJ’s Takata flagged policy still accommodative but moving toward target; coalition deal in Tokyo adds political clarity.
• GBP: Range-bound; BoE officials note disinflation progress slowing even as growth remains soft.
• Asia/Antipodeans: PBoC left 1Y/5Y LPRs unchanged; stronger Chinese IP/GDP aided CNH and lent support to AUD/NZD after last week’s soft Aussie jobs data.

Commodities

• Crude oil: Lower despite weekend Gaza strikes; focus remains on demand with ceasefire still largely in effect and no fresh supply shock.
• Gold: Consolidating after Friday’s pullback, still elevated on policy/geopolitical risks.
• Base metals: Copper firmer after China’s data beat and officials’ confidence in the 5% full-year growth goal.

Trade & Tariffs

• U.S.–China: White House presses for restored soybean purchases; signals scope to trim some tariff costs if Beijing reciprocates; warns against rare-earth export gambits. Bessent and He Lifeng held “candid, constructive” talks; in-person meeting this week.
• New U.S. measures: 25% tariffs on heavy-duty trucks and 10% on imported buses from Nov 1; targeted tariff relief for autos’ U.S. production; reports of selective watering-down/exemptions to facilitate deals.
• Elsewhere: Seoul sees higher odds of a U.S.–Korea trade deal by APEC; Mexico in talks on tariff discounts for heavy-truck parts; Netherlands defends Nexperia intervention, seeks dialogue with China.

Geopolitics

• Middle East: Israel struck Gaza after alleging truce violations, then said ceasefire enforcement resumed; Rafah crossing reopening linked to return of additional hostages’ remains; U.S. warned guarantors of credible breach risk.
• Russia–Ukraine: Trump–Putin call labeled “good and productive”; staff talks set this week with a possible leaders’ meeting after; reporting varies on territorial terms. IAEA says repairs to Zaporizhzhia power lines began under localized ceasefires; U.K. pledges continued support to Kyiv.
• Other flashpoints: China alleges a U.S. cyberattack on a state agency; U.S. exploring optics of a meeting with North Korea’s leader during an Asia trip; U.S. claims interdiction of a drug-running submarine and hints at new tariffs on Colombia.

Summary

The dollar is steady to softer, the euro nudges higher, and the yen firms on cautious BoJ signals and Japanese political clarity. Oil slips on demand worries despite headline risk in Gaza; gold consolidates near highs; copper benefits from better-than-expected Chinese data. Trade policy remains the key swing factor: Washington pairs new sector-specific tariffs with selective relief while reopening lines to Beijing. Geopolitics stays tense but fluid, with ceasefire management in Gaza and renewed high-level U.S.–Russia diplomacy shaping risk sentiment in the days ahead.