October 1st, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics Briefing (Oct 1, 2025)

Episode summary:
Washington’s government shutdown set the early tone, knocking the dollar and lifting havens while markets weighed how long key U.S. data could be delayed. The yen outperformed, gold pressed fresh highs, oil stayed heavy despite an OPEC rebuttal of supply-ramp rumors, and Europe moved closer to tougher steel tariffs. Flashpoints from Gaza to Zaporizhzhia kept geopolitics front-of-mind.

Today’s rundown

FX

• USD softer on shutdown risk: DXY briefly slipped into the 97.4–97.8 range as uncertainty over near-term data and policy messaging rose.
• JPY leads: Safe-haven demand and a BoJ backdrop that still tilts toward gradual normalization supported USD/JPY below the 200-DMA.
• EUR & GBP firmer: Euro held gains after Eurozone flash HICP (headline ~2.2% y/y) while sterling outpaced modestly on light domestic news.
• AUD steadies on hawkish hold: RBA left rates unchanged but stressed lingering inflation risks; China’s Golden Week limited follow-through.
• KRW policy coordination: The U.S. and South Korea pledged to avoid FX manipulation, reserve interventions for disorderly markets, and share monthly details of any operations—important context for KRW volatility.

Commodities

• Crude under pressure: OPEC’s secretariat firmly rejected reports of a 500k bpd increase by select members, but prices stayed heavy amid broader risk and product builds in private U.S. inventory data.
• Gold near record highs: Shutdown uncertainty and a softer dollar kept a strong bid under bullion after setting fresh all-time highs.
• Copper firmer, range-bound: Holds above the USD 10k/t handle with Chinese markets shut for Golden Week; focus remains on U.S. data cadence.

Trade & tariffs

• EU steel duties: Brussels is preparing to lift import tariffs on foreign steel to levels comparable with the U.S. and Canada (talk near 50%).
• EU–Mercosur timeline: Commission aiming to sign the pact on Dec 5, pending last-mile politics.
• Semis & supply chains: Taiwan reportedly declined a U.S. request to produce half of its chips onshore in America.
• Japan outbound investment: Tokyo says a planned U.S.-bound investment program will be managed to avoid disruptive FX effects.
• U.S.–Korea ties: New visa working group to facilitate Korean investment in the U.S., complementing the fresh FX-policy statement.

Geopolitics

• Middle East shipping risk: Yemen’s Houthis claimed a cruise-missile strike on the Dutch-flagged Minervagracht.
• Iran signaling: IRGC said missile range could be extended if pressured by Europe to limit its program.
• Gaza diplomacy: Mediators say Hamas seeks guarantees on full Israeli withdrawal and ceasefire compliance in any deal framework.
• Ukraine nuclear risk: Kyiv warned of a critical situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP; the IAEA is engaging both sides to restore stable off-site power.
• Russia sanctions & LNG: EU capitals haven’t finalized the next sanctions package; Italy says no EU ban on Russian LNG before 2028.

What to watch next

• U.S. data flow: ADP and ISM Manufacturing are in focus today; Jobless Claims and NFP likely delayed until the government reopens.
• OPEC meeting signals: Weekend communications vs. current price action.
• European trade stance: Details and timing on higher steel tariffs; any knock-ons for metals markets.
• Hot spots: Maritime security in the Red Sea/Eastern Med and safety at Zaporizhzhia.

Quick FX & commodities snapshot (directional)

• USD: Softer on shutdown uncertainty.
• JPY: Firmer on haven bid and BoJ normalization expectations.
• EUR/GBP: Modestly higher vs. USD.
• AUD/NZD: Mixed; AUD supported by RBA tone, China holiday tempers moves.
• Oil: Weak, despite OPEC denial of a supply hike.
• Gold: Near record highs; haven demand intact.
• Copper: Slightly firmer, range-bound.