Volatility: Historical vs. Implied

The Automated Trading Podcast by Advanced AutoTrades

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This episode differentiates between historical volatility and implied volatility in options trading. Historical volatility quantifies past price fluctuations of a stock, often expressed as an annualised standard deviation of its movements over a specific timeframe, typically calculated using actual trading days. Conversely, implied volatility is a forward-looking measure, not based on historical data, but rather on the current pricing of options, reflecting market participants' expectations of future price movements. This implied volatility provides an expected range for a stock's future performance and is considered crucial for options traders, as it represents collective market sentiment and speculation. Ultimately, understanding the interplay between these two forms of volatility can help traders assess potential stock ranges and make informed decisions, though it is emphasised that implied volatility remains a theoretical measure and not a guarantee of future movement.

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