Predictions For 2024

Reformed Millennials - Learn Earn and Invest

Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.

* Reviewing 2023 predictions

* Whats in store for 2024

* 2024 predictions

* Recommendations and Links

Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.

Market Update📈📉

Welcome back and Happy New year everyone.

The market has gotten off to a very slow start. Erasing all the gains in the final five trading days of last year.

On LinkedIn I posted a little blurb on the January Trifecta that i think is important to talk about as we trade through January.

Santa failed to show up for his Rally.In investing, there are many adages or proverbs that people track.One that has become popular is the New Years Trifecta.The first leg is the Santa Clause Rally. Which combines the final 5 trading days of last year and the first 2 trading days of the new year. The second is “the first 5 days” of January.The third is “as January goes, so goes the rest of the year”.The first adage or indicator is usually measuring the S&P500, but it’s also fair game to expand it more broadly as I think it helps to see the whole market. (See attached chart from All Star Charts)So what does it all mean exactly?Last year, we had one of the best January’s in history. Which lead to one of the best performing years for a 60:40 portfolio in a long time.We’ve gotten off to a poor start here in North America. But the rest of the world, specifically Emerging Markets, Financials and Healthcare have bucked that trend.There are many strategists on the street bullish these three areas of the market.They are showing relative strength.I think that’s important to pay attention to.It’s a new year, with new trends.

2024 Predictions:

* Cancel culture gets canceled

* Ozempic (GLP-1) is bigger than AI

* S&P 500 sees a +15% gain

* Jerome Powell leaves the fed in 2024 after soft landing confirmed and before Trump

* TikTok finally gets banned in the US and Canada (After election)

* Hypest IPO of 2024 is going to be Kim K’s Spanx and Stripe

* Longevity products go mainstream

* Crypto begins a new bull market

* Software moats erode with AI

* Valuation dispersion widens

* A new generational social media product is born

* India has a blockbuster startup IPO

* US IPO market reopens; M&A stalls with regulation

* Small cap tech IPOs will make a comeback

* AI deflates healthcare

* Digital detoxes go mainstream

* The value of culture will skyrocket in the AI age

* Fed will hike more than it will cut in 2024

* Bitcoin spot ETF will not happen in 2024

* Gold will trade below $1700

* No banks will fail

* China Equities will outperform all G7 equities

* YoY US CPI measure for all of 2024 will exceed 2023 year end level

* Mag 7 will again outperform SPX 493

Podcast & YouTube Recommendations

* The best interview of Scott I have ever watched. And I’ve seen darn near all of them.

* Zeihan on Canada’s position economically

Best Links of The Week🔮

* The Case Against Travel by Agnes Callard - An argument we might all be more open to after experiencing an airport around the holidays … Especially in an age of online booking and Instagram, travel shouldn’t be considered an achievement or a hobby.

* An Extraordinary Introduction to the Birth of Israel and the Arab-Israeli Conflict (with Haviv Rettig Gur) by EconTalk Podcast - A much broader perspective on the foundation of Israel that goes well beyond 1948 and puts Zionism in a wider historical context in Europe.

* Bonus (Listen): Sam Lessin of SlowVC: The End of Factory-Farmed Unicorns on World of DaaS pod Everyone is afraid to make predictions, except Sam Lessin. Sam gives an in depth breakdown of the last five years of VC, and where it’s heading in the next five.

* Why The Age of American Progress Ended by Derek Thompson “Invention alone can’t change the world; what matters is what happens next.” The US has more Nobel prizes for science than most of Europe combined, but if there were a Nobel prize for deployment and adoption of new technologies, we certainly wouldn’t be the leading recipients.

* The Secret Life of the 500+ Cables That Run the Internet by Stephen Shankland Some of the facts about the several hundred cables that connect the global internet are unbelievable: They’re only about the width of a garden hose, and they carry 99% of intercontinental internet traffic.

* What do you actually want? by Raffi Grinberg

For the season of goal setting, a practical, replicable exercise to understand more about what you actually want and why, with grounding in modern psychology.

Disclaimer:

Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com