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Supplement 06 Oct 24 - What a plaque
Manage episode 444128036 series 3560038
A tartalmat a Adam Lawrence biztosítja. Az összes podcast-tartalmat, beleértve az epizódokat, grafikákat és podcast-leírásokat, közvetlenül a Adam Lawrence vagy a podcast platform partnere tölti fel és biztosítja. Ha úgy gondolja, hogy valaki az Ön engedélye nélkül használja fel a szerzői joggal védett művét, kövesse az itt leírt folyamatot https://hu.player.fm/legal.
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****
This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:
Statistical trickery in the housing market and why you shouldn’t trust “guesswork”
Nationwide House Price index and the quarterly report
The in-the-now performance of the economy in the PMIs and revised growth figures
Mortgage approvals and the money supply - and everything in between when it comes to ££££
An annoying week for the gilts but our surprising gap is widening - long may it last…..
And in the deep dive......
Interest rates! What’s gone on this week - we are due for an avalanche, aren’t we?
PLUS - the REAL and proper rate of interest, and my predictions for all the relevant rates over the coming 12 months
What you know at the end is - as an ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Don’t fear Kier, he’s too busy with Freebies
Enjoy
104 epizódok
MegosztásManage episode 444128036 series 3560038
A tartalmat a Adam Lawrence biztosítja. Az összes podcast-tartalmat, beleértve az epizódokat, grafikákat és podcast-leírásokat, közvetlenül a Adam Lawrence vagy a podcast platform partnere tölti fel és biztosítja. Ha úgy gondolja, hogy valaki az Ön engedélye nélkül használja fel a szerzői joggal védett művét, kövesse az itt leírt folyamatot https://hu.player.fm/legal.
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****
This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:
Statistical trickery in the housing market and why you shouldn’t trust “guesswork”
Nationwide House Price index and the quarterly report
The in-the-now performance of the economy in the PMIs and revised growth figures
Mortgage approvals and the money supply - and everything in between when it comes to ££££
An annoying week for the gilts but our surprising gap is widening - long may it last…..
And in the deep dive......
Interest rates! What’s gone on this week - we are due for an avalanche, aren’t we?
PLUS - the REAL and proper rate of interest, and my predictions for all the relevant rates over the coming 12 months
What you know at the end is - as an ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Don’t fear Kier, he’s too busy with Freebies
Enjoy
104 epizódok
Minden epizód
×
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at a couple more reports - Zoopla’s efforts for the month which get into flats and houses, and the differences - and I attempt to add some depth, and then a great report from the Nationwide Foundation about the Private Rental Sector - the best I’ve read, bar none. We also have, in the Macro section: The Nationwide House Price Index Confidence - and the return of it, or a couple of green shoots anyway The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report The gilts and swaps - bringing up the rear as always, with reasonable news. And in the deep dive...... Zoopla’s report on pricing for January that was released in February contains some revelations about the price of flats and how much cheaper they are than houses. We are heading to a world where a house is twice the price of a flat. However - I ask the questions to take it to the next level of detail - are flats much less attractive, comparatively, than they were? As investment propositions, I primarily mean……before you even start on cladding, fire, rocketing service charges…….you get the picture. Then the Nationwide Foundation, and their report on “Systemic change” in the PRS - this report asks so many important questions, and whilst I critique with the red pen as usual, I’m full of praise for those even asking these questions. Real progress from an organisation without an agenda, that’s well funded - heartwarming to say the least. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - we SPRING towards the stamp duty deadline and the reintroduction of the 2% band - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On (and for our conveyancers to get on with it, if we are buying anything right now!) Enjoy Workshop tickets: bit.ly/pbw6 Deal-finding course: bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025…
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at a couple of reports that have been on my hit list for some time. One from the centre, and one from left of centre - firstly, the hotel of mum and dad; then the positive changes in housing circumstances for young people in Britain over the past decade (and my idea of irony on that subject). We also have, in the Macro section, in “mega week”: The ONS Labour Market Report INFLATION - and just how “Back” it is. The flash PMIs, of course…… The gilts and swaps - a week that really could have been worse. And in the deep dive...... The Institute for Fiscal Studies report entitled “Hotel of Mum and Dad” released last month looks specifically at the area of those aged 25-34 “co-living” with Mum and Dad, and how it varies, how it has changed in recent years, and some of the drivers of the changes. I get stuck into it. Then the Resolution Foundation, whilst really wanting to write an article about just how hard the younger working families on middle and low incomes have got it, found themselves forced to conclude that the past decade has meant steps forward, rather than steps backward, for this group of the population. I get stuck into that too! What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - job worries, inflation wobbles, a cratering manufacturing sector and Andrew Bailey’s warnings of weak growth - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On Enjoy Workshop tickets: bit.ly/pbw6 Deal-finding course: bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025…
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes back in for a second bite of the cherry on the Bank of England Monetary Policy report that accompanied the meeting the week before; plus the invaluable insight that I get directly from the regional rep of the Bank at the Quarterly briefings. He speaks to the committee directly - and let’s face it, that’s as close as I’m getting at any point in the near future. We also have, in the Macro section: The RICS Residential Market Survey The ONS full report on Growth and the “upside miss” - party time? A bonus productivity report on the public sector and specifically healthcare and……. The gilts and swaps - a week that really could have been worse. And in the deep dive...... The Bank of England changed a whole number of forecasts compared to where they were 3 months before. It was an eventful quarter. I’m not convinced they’d done their budget homework before they released their November report - but what are these adjustments, and what do they mean for interest rates, and the property market in general? There’s detail - real detail - you have been warned! What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, responsibly, even with a bit more inflation, slightly higher rates than many were promising, and of course the ever-changing legislative landscape that seeks to frighten everyone that little bit more each week…….. Enjoy Workshop tickets: bit.ly/pbw6 Deal-finding course: bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025…
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive has no choice - there’s the most fundamental switch in approach from one of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee members that there has been in - a LONG time - and it needs discussion at an appropriate level. Does it mean that interest rates are dropping faster than some misery guts - Propenomix included - have been saying? We also have, in the Macro section: The Halifax House Price Index The PMIs - my darlings of the real time economy The BBA mortgage rate The gilts and swaps - a week for the scrapbook. And in the deep dive...... Rachel seemed to get buried again this week as the rhetoric all swung to what loyal readers and listeners to the Supplement already knew - as I’ve been screaming - these incredibly positive growth forecasts need to come DOWN. She was naive to claim that little victory last week when the IMF upgraded the UK growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.8% as the Bank of England DOWNgraded it massively in their most recent forecast (interestingly, to exactly where I predicted it would be around 2 months ago). But does the whole story add up? Does my version of it all add up? I run the ruler over it, in detail, on the back of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Report - a quarterly event, which led to a 0.25% cut in the Base Rate on Thursday. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, responsibly, even if we have to cope with the slings and arrows of outrageous policy, productivity and growth numbers! Enjoy Workshop tickets: bit.ly/pbw6 Deal-finding course: bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025…
1 Supplement 2 Feb 25 - The New Dawn? 1:00:41
1:00:41 
Lejátszás később 
Lejátszás később 
Listák 
Tetszik 
Kedvelt1:00:41
Lejátszás később Lejátszás később Listák Tetszik Kedvelt****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes long - Rachel Reeves is going “Further and Faster” - no, not out the door of Number 11 as some have been hoping - but for GROWTH We also have, in the Macro section: The Nationwide House Price Index (and affordability report) - in detail The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - with implications The ONS real-time report on Economic Activity and Social Change in the UK - and how we are stacking up compared to 5+ years ago The gilts and swaps - an orderly and directionally sweet week. And in the deep dive...... Rachel Reeves Resurrection, Rallying Cry, Roar, Respite from Negativity - call it what you will. Crumbs for the North and Midlands, and Gold for the South? No wonder they dropped the levelling up chat, eh? But no - apparently you can build runways and gigantic developments in the countryside but it all be congruent with net zero? That seems like a big lie, to be honest - BUT, however they are going to navigate that bit, these moves are absolutely in the right direction. Make no mistake. Reeves 2.0 looks a vast improvement (yes, from a low bar of a start). Expect Rachel to no longer look like she’s been dug up when you see her in the media - she’s in the ascendancy now, but now we will find out what mettle (and ability) lies behind the padded CV and the rhetoric. Spring looks BIG. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, regardless of the best or worst efforts of the current Government! Enjoy Buy workshop tickets - bit.ly/pbw6 Explore Sourcing Solved: http://bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025…
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes for the trifecta this week - an interesting but strange Hamptons report about the rental market - a fascinating piece about a Community Rent Model - and some musings on the “big debate” I was involved in this week. We also have, in the Macro section: (Un)employment - that week of the month. Weak? Confidence (or more accurately, lack thereof) The flash PMIs - my favourite real time indicator of economic health (or sickness) The gilts and swaps - a relatively idyllic week And in the deep dive...... Hamptons make sense of the English Housing Survey data alongside their own, particularly around the percentage of rent paid by people of a certain age. They also examine the effect of the withdrawal of the Help-to-Buy scheme The work and brainchild of a Labour councillor who did incredible work in Social Housing starts, but seems to have an answer that needs MUCH more airtime than it has received thus far. Hence the Supplement! My reflections on the debate I had this week with Samuel Leeds, property training business owner. This premieres after the Supplement goes to print and air, so there are no spoilers, don’t worry - you’ll have to watch it for that! What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, regardless of the best or worst efforts of the current Government! Enjoy…
1 Supplement 19 Jan 25 - Storm in a Teacup 1:08:14
1:08:14 Lejátszás később Lejátszás később Listák Tetszik Kedvelt1:08:14
Lejátszás később Lejátszás később Listák Tetszik Kedvelt****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes into the low and high pay report from the ONS - with some unreported but eye-opening headlines - and also takes a look at the 6-monthly ONS migration report in a significant level of detail We also have, in the Macro section: Inflation - you know it - and downside misses on forecasts Growth, Growth, Growth - and the microscopes needed to find it The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report, always illuminating The gilts and swaps - and why last week’s advice not to panic has played out well, and will continue to do so in my view - with some bonus content here too And in the deep dive...... The ONS keeps on delivering interesting reports and I keep ploughing through them. How many people are now low paid in the UK as a percentage, using the official OECD definition? It looks great - why have we not been shouting about it from the rooftops? What about the high-paid - have we created those high-pay, high-skill jobs that were promised some time back by the guy with the hair? Then - migration - the most comprehensive look I’ve ever taken at this subject that defines the shape of the rental market in the UK for many years to come. Hopefully I’ve answered some questions that you might have been asking, and some you might not realise that you wanted to ask, but are interested in What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - Rachel, you had a good week, keep driving those yields down - pretty please? Enjoy Learn more about the Sourcing Course: https://bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025…
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes into the household and national balance sheets - lifting the lid on how good, or bad, the UK finances as a whole truly are. As a bonus, we look at UK Finance’s forecasts for 2025 and 2026 when it comes to lending, and specifically buy-to-let of course. We also have, in the Macro section: The Halifax House Price Index and their take on 2025 The Services and Construction PMI final prints for December and the Composite Index, with the bearish comments thrown in The Bank of England BBA Mortgage rate data and the decision maker panel forecasts for 2025 The gilts and swaps - and some real meat (remember to chew it well, you may want 2 or 3 reads of this section…..) about the yields and what’s really going on - and what it means, and why I’m not panicking. Yet And in the deep dive...... The ONS once a year - usually, in business as usual times - produce a Balance Sheet for the UK and establish “our” net worth - including the households as the primary holders of the vast majority of the wealth. How much is it? How did it move? How bankrupt - or not - is the UK? What’s it all made up of, anyway (I know you can guess what a very decent slug of it is made up of……) UK Finance - who have all the lender data - produce a detailed forecast of the key numbers in the mortgage market for 2025, including net lending, repossessions, arrears, and remortgaging (or lack of it, as there has been over recent years) What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - Rachel, we need you to step up Enjoy Buy workshop tickets at: bit.ly/pbwfive…
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Resolution Foundation’s recent report “Housing Hurdles” gets the full treatment in the deep dive today. The Nationwide House Price Index and surprises or lack thereof The Manufacturing PMI final print for December and glum accompanying commentary The Bank of England Money and Credit report for November and the first backward step for a while - but, in context, of course The gilts and swaps - in another thin trading week, be careful…… And in the deep dive...... The Resolution Foundation made waves with their recent report because they chose a headline about how much home ownership had improved for millennials in the previous decade. This was no surprise to me as I follow the actual figures rather than the media hype - but there’s plenty of interest including their analysis and methodology right under the microscope this week, as I go into detail about how I think a really robust piece of work would go about making comparisons with 35 years ago. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - 1 down, 51 to go……. Enjoy Workshop tickets at https://bit.ly/pbwfive…
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Hamptons International weigh in with another couple of well-researched Property market reports Zoopla takes us into 2025 with their roundup of 2024 as they saw it The Macro roundup for the quarter from the ONS Business Investment - going well, for Q3 - fingers crossed Retail sales and a surprise for the fortunes of online retail, perhaps? The gilts and swaps - in a thin trading week, so be careful…… And in the deep dive...... Hamptons deep-dive into stamp duty, and the changes which are now 10 years old - and the changes coming again in April Hamptons December market update with predictions for next year and some useful stats on completions before the deadline Zoopla predict a 2.5% increase in capital growth for 2025 - with more transactions than 2024 as well And after all that - I reveal the first look at MY predictions for 2025 on all the important macro numbers - plus house prices and rents. How close will I get this time around….??? What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On into 2025 - remember, even a stopped clock is right twice a day so some of the political decisions will go well next year! Enjoy BUY workshop tickets at bit.ly/pbwfive…
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Bank of England meeting minutes - in detail - as rates HOLD once more The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report and some records broken….. The real time market and how it is going - bringing it home for a year that will see 1.7 million homes hit the open market The Flash PMIs and the stark picture painted by the analysts The Jobs Report - what’s the direction of travel? Inflation, a rant, and the truth - no hype here The gilts and swaps - in a volatile week And in the deep dive...... The Bank votes 6-3 to hold the rate - why, and what’s troubling them. Who are the allies in getting that rate down!? The ONS private rents and house prices report - the truth for 2024 versus the negativity, and the hot - and not - regions of the UK What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On with Xmas - don’t let the incongruent politicians grind you down, have a good one! Enjoy BUY Workshop tickets: http://bit.ly/pbwfive…
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: FCA quarterly mortgage data - always enlightening. Zoopla’s rental market report - extremely well-balanced and full of decent info The real time market and how it is going - chugging along to the end of a year that’s surprised many of the commentators, still Growth (or lack thereof) Consumer Confidence - doing well in the face of point one RICS and their residential market survey, which has finally caught up with reality, it is good to note The gilts and swaps - and another disappointing week, but another silver lining as well….. And in the deep dive...... An end to the trends seen in recent mortgage data, apart from one important one - the lack of buy-to-let new mortgages…… Zoopla’s rental index telling us what’s going on in real time in the rental market for new rents - with some very sensible predictions for the rental market over the coming years as well, alongside the real governors in that market. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - whilst Reform takes the lead in the polls, Labour keep talking about “reform” - when will they realise they need to change the narrative! Enjoy Buy workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbwfive Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix! Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel 🟢 https://youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast 🟣 https://propenomix.com/ Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below 🔵 https://partners-property.com/blog/ #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets…
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The English Housing Survey is OUT - and I analyse the exec summary and chapter 1, in detail. Some “data surprises” in there! The real time market and how it is going - chugging along to the end of a year that’s surprised many of the commentators Halifax and Nationwide House Price Indices The BRC retail sales monitor - a car crash? Why? The PMIs - not QUITE as bad as the flash figures, but still miserable The gilts and swaps - a snap to end the run of down weeks, but how bad - or not - was it? And in the deep dive...... A geek smorgasbord of data as the English Housing Survey is released and I take a close look at the demographics, and breakdown across tenures - the data doesn’t find sensationalist headlines, and the story is “more of the same” to a large extent, with some surprising trends. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Kier has had a re-boot, when a lot of us would prefer he just got the boot - but be careful what you wish for, what’s waiting in the wings is not economic paradise but “lettuce part deux” if we are not careful…… Enjoy Workshop tickets for 16th Jan at: http://bit.ly/pbwfive…
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Zoopla’s predictions for 2025 - but how did they do for 2024? They don’t directly compare, so I do……. The real time market and how it is going - promising signs still Consumer and business confidence under the microscope The Retail Sales The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - how are mortgages going? What about household debt overall? The gilts and swaps - a better week again, keep these coming And in the deep dive...... Zoopla’s House Price Index including 2025 predictions The Bank of England Financial Policy Committee also published their Financial Stability Report - a detailed analysis of where we are sitting and what the stress test results look like. What to watch out for! What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - The OBR has predicted 2% growth for 2025, and that looks extremely hopeful for the moment……but let’s stay positive and open-minded……. Enjoy…
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Affordability - how bad is it, historically? How good (and timely) is the data? The real time market and how it is going - reasonably, is the answer Inflation numbers in detail The ONS private rents and house prices The PMIs - what’s the real time picture of economic activity? The gilts and swaps - a better week And in the deep dive...... The ONS affordability report on rentals, dissected in detail Zoopla’s most recent affordability report put side-by-side, with some decent analysis and interesting conclusions What’s the conversation that none of them dares to have? Find out… What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - let’s see this Stability that we keep hearing about……at the moment the only thing stable is the economic growth rate (at 0%)....... Enjoy…
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