Tail Risks 2021

OCBC Treasury Research and Strategy - Podcast

Vaccine haves and have-nots. Stepping into 2021, let’s take a look at the potential tail risks presented by vaccine development. On the positive end, if we can find more “sweet spot” vaccines that are not just effective but relatively easy to roll out in many developing countries, we would see a great upsurge in consumer and business confidence. On the flip side, if such vaccines are not readily available, a sharp dichotomy between the (vaccinated) rich world and (unvaccinated) others could have tremendous negative implications on market sentiment towards emerging markets in 2021.