Regional Credit Outlooks for 2024

Moody’s Talks – Behind the Bonds

In 2024 we see an uneven picture for companies across the globe. For those in North America and Asia-Pacific, excluding China, the credit outlook is stable. But in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America the outlook is negative. Driving this testing global environment are higher for longer interest rates which are raising the cost of borrowing and re-financing. This is a particular challenge for speculative-grade companies. Higher rates are also weighing on consumer demand in some sectors, particularly real estate.

Later in the episode at 11.30mins, our colleagues in Hong Kong take a closer look at prospects for companies in China, in recent decades the driver of the global economy, but facing a negative credit outlook for 2024.

Guests: Myriam Durand, Managing Director, Global Corporate Finance Group and Gloria Tsuen, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group.

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.  

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.)

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Global Outlook Segment

• Nonfinancial Companies – North America: 2024 Outlook - Stable on relatively robust growth, even as high rates drive risk
• Nonfinancial Companies – APAC ex China: 2024 Outlook - Stable on sustained growth in large, domestic-focused economies
• Nonfinancial Companies – EMEA: 2024 Outlook - Negative as higher rates bite and consumers remain cautious
• Nonfinancial Companies – Latin America & Caribbean: 2024 Outlook - Negative amid high rates, slow growth and subdued commodity prices

China Segment

• Nonfinancial Companies – China: 2024 Outlook - Negative amid lower growth and prolonged property downturn
• Cross Sector – China: China will be more selective in providing support to state-owned enterprise
• Cross Sector – China: Slowing growth intensifies spillover effects of long property market downturn
• Macroeconomics– China: Medium-term growth outlook will reflect effectiveness of economic rebalancing
• Credit Conditions – China: Soft economic recovery heightens contingent liabilities from LGFV debt risks