Know your models (330)

InsTech - insurance & innovation with Matthew Grant & Robin Merttens

From our highly successful webinar last month sponsored by Fathom, we bring to you everything you need to know about models in a bitesize podcast.

Flood models play a critical role in helping insurers, brokers and risk managers assess flood risk, but their inherent uncertainties make effective use challenging.

Matthew Grant leads a discussion with Dr. Oliver Wing, Chief Scientific Officer at Fathom, along with Caroline Fox from Guy Carpenter, Stefan Wunderlich from Swiss Re Corporate Solutions and Tom Philp, a flood risk consultant from Maximum Information. Together, they explore how flood models can be tailored to support underwriting decisions, portfolio management and risk selection.

Oliver highlights the importance of understanding model uncertainty, while Caroline and Stefan share practical insights on using flood maps effectively, validating outputs and collaborating with model vendors to create actionable insights. Tom provides guidance on defining use cases to evaluate and implement models more effectively.

Key talking points include:

• Flood models are inherently uncertain, requiring underwriters to consider the spread of possible outcomes.
• Tailoring model use to specific needs, like underwriting or aggregation, is essential for actionable insights.
• Low-hazard zones still carry risk, and misinterpretations can lead to costly surprises.
• Multi-model approaches can help, but deeply understanding one model’s assumptions can sometimes be more effective.
• Collaborating with model vendors enables better customization and decision-making.

If you like what you’re hearing, please leave us a review on whichever platform you use or contact Matthew Grant on LinkedIn.

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Continuing Professional Development

This InsTech Podcast Episode is accredited by the Chartered Insurance Institute (CII). By listening, you can claim up to 0.5 hours towards your CPD scheme.

By the end of this podcast, you should be able to meet the following Learning Objectives:

• Define the concept of model uncertainty and its impact on decision-making.
• Identify the limitations of flood models when interpreting low-hazard zones and evaluating risk.
• Measure the importance of tailoring flood models to specific use cases, such as aggregation versus underwriting.

If your organisation is a member of InsTech and you would like to receive a quarterly summary of the CPD hours you have earned, visit the Episode 330 page of the InsTech website or email [email protected] to let us know you have listened to this podcast.

To help us measure the impact of the learning, we would be grateful if you would take a minute to complete a quick feedback survey.