Behind the Curve: Can manufacturing still provide inclusive growth?

Harvard Center for International Development

This podcast was originally recorded on Friday, April 8, 2022, for the CID Speaker Series featuring Robert Lawrence, Albert L. Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at John F. Kennedy School of Government. Robert continued the conversation with CID Student Ambassador, Kevin Chen, after an appearance at the virtual CID Speaker Series event. Professor Lawrence discusses the causes and consequences of the diminished role of manufacturing as a driver of economic growth and inclusion in developed and developing countries. The talk explains why the share of manufacturing follows an inverted U-shaped curve as countries develop; considers why that curve has shifted downwards and inwards over time; shows that all developed and many developing countries, even those with large trade surpluses in manufacturing are now on the downward slope of the curve; and evaluates the implications recent industrial policy initiatives in the light of this experience.