A New Calculus for War? Understanding Israel-Hezbollah Dynamics

Decision Points

In recent weeks, the mid-intensity conflict on Israel’s northern border with Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite terror group, has threatened to explode into all-out war. With Israel ramping up its targeted killings of top Hezbollah military commanders and Hezbollah launching rockets and drones ever further into Israel, is total war inevitable? What will it take to deliver peace and/or stability in the long-term and restore a sense of security to border residents? In this episode, Amos Harel and Hanin Ghaddar join David Makovsky to discuss the state of play on Israel's northern border, the probability of all-out war with Hezbollah, and options for diplomacy and de-escalation. Harel is a seasoned military analyst for Haaretz and a leading expert on Israel’s defense and security issues. Ghaddar, a native of Al-Ghazieh in Lebanon, is the Institute’s Friedmann Senior Fellow and an expert on Hezbollah and Lebanese politics.

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