CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 34

CropGPT - Cocoa

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the global cocoa market as of August 24, 2025.

• In Ivory Coast, the cocoa sector faces significant strain due to the longest dry spells in 46 years, affecting pod retention and threatening harvest volumes. While upcoming rains may improve crop conditions, mid-crop cocoa has already suffered, with processors reporting rejection rates as high as 56 percent compared to just 1 percent during the main crop. U.S. port inventories are down, partly due to slower exports from Ivory Coast, although improved rainfall offers cautious optimism for the next main crop season.
• Ghana is forecasted to produce 650,000 metric tons for the 2025-26 crop year, an 8.3 percent year-over-year increase. However, dissatisfaction among farmers over uncompetitive producer prices could lead to smuggling and instability, potentially impacting support services and future output.
• Nigeria is expecting an 11 percent decline in cocoa production due to adverse weather, falling to 305,000 metric tons. On the demand side, cocoa grindings have dropped in Europe (down 7.2 percent), Asia, and North America (declining by 16.3 and 2.8 percent, respectively), indicating a broader decrease in global demand.
• The International Cocoa Organization predicts a shift from a current global deficit to a surplus in the coming years, driven by expected increases in production. This shift could ease price pressures but will hinge on improving weather in West Africa and resolution of farmer unrest in key producing countries.
• Technical market factors also play a role, with cocoa futures responding to pressures at critical support and resistance levels. Stakeholders are advised to closely monitor weather trends and market sentiment in this volatile environment.