What if Japan was split into two? (Operation Downfall and North Japan and South Japan)

Back To The Past: The Alternate History Podcast

The United States detonated two nuclear weapons over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on 6 and 9 August 1945, respectively. The two bombings killed between 129,000 and 226,000 people, most of whom were civilians, and remain the only use of nuclear weapons in armed conflict. In the final year of World War II, the Allies prepared for a costly invasion of the Japanese mainland. This undertaking was preceded by a conventional and firebombing campaign that devastated 67 Japanese cities. The war in Europe concluded when Germany surrendered on 8 May 1945, and the Allies turned their full attention to the Pacific War.

Operation Downfall was the proposed Allied plan for the invasion of the Japanese home islands near the end of World War II. Casualty predictions varied widely, but were extremely high. Depending on the degree to which Japanese civilians would have resisted the invasion, estimates ran up into the millions for Allied casualties.

If Operation Downfall was implemented, it would have been the largest amphibious operation that ever occurred in history. Millions of lives on both sides would have perished. And Japan would end up split between the Soviets and the Americans, with the cold war looking vastly different.

What would happen if Operation Downfall actually occurred? What would be the state of Korea? Japan? And how about East Asia as a whole?

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