Pre-Trading Thoughts

Al Ahly Pharos

Egypt is in talks with the International Monetary Fund to extend timelines for key reforms under its economic reform program, a senior government official said. The official expects Egypt to be placed on the IMF Executive Board’s agenda before the Christmas holidays for the amendments to be given the final greenlight.

The average yield on three-month EGP-denominated t-bills rose to 31.419% in Sunday’s auction by the Central Bank of Egypt, up 0.219 percentage points since the same bills last went to auction.

Net foreign reserves remained flat at USD47.0 billion at the end of November 2024.

Chinese luggage manufacturer Hangzhou Henneway Travel Goods kicked off construction on its USD50 million factory in the Suez Canal Economic Zone’s (SCZone) Qantara West Industrial Zone.

CBE data revealed that Egypt paid USD1.3 billion in repo agreements (repurchase international bonds) worth USD1.3 billion last month.

The trade deficit recorded USD31.275 billion during the first 10 months of 2024, an increase of 1% compared to a deficit of USD31.025 billion in the same period last year.

United Bank’s shares will debut on the EGX tomorrow under the ticker UBEE, following the close of its heavily oversubscribed retail and private offerings that put the company’s share price at EGP13.85.

ESRS Board of Directors agreed to begin procedures for delisting its shares from the EGX, pending the general assembly’s approval.

Saudi cable manufacturer Al Mousa Cables is set to establish its first EUR50 million cable production factory in Egypt, according to local media.

We updated our FV for EAST to EGP48.11/share, maintaining our Overweight recommendation. EAST is currently trading at FY24/25 P/E of 6.3x and EV/EBITDA of 5.5x.

CLHO reported positive 3Q24 results with 3Q24 attributable net profit amounted to EGP207 million, up 45% QoQ and 73% YoY, yielding a NPM of 14.2%. On a YTD basis, 9M24 attributable net profit came in at EGP532 million (+71% YoY) yielding a NPM of 13.9% (+1.61pps YoY). CLHO is currently trading at FY25 multiples of P/E 14.2x and EV/EBITDA of 7.0x.

According to AMIC, auto sales increased by 7.3% YoY and 1.1% MoM in October to record 9.6kvehicles up from 9.0k vehicles during October 2023 and 9.5k vehicles in September 2024.

Weekly Commodities Update
| | Last Price | WoW Change, %
| Brent, USD/bbl | 71.1 | -2.5%
| Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 229.3 | -3.8%
| Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 364.0 | 2.8%
| Polyethylene, USD/ton | 950.0 | 0.0%
| Polypropylene, USD/ton | 960.0 | 0.0%
| Iron Ore 65%, USD/ton | 123.6 | -0.2%
| Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 377.1 | -1.0%
| LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,569.8 | -0.3%
| LME Copper Cash Price, USD/ton | 9,011.9 | 1.4%
| Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 2,847.0 | 0.0%
| Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 133.3 | -5.8%
| SMP, USD/MT | 2,848.0 | -1.2%