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Using Monte Carlo Simulation
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Manage episode 414785085 series 2359252
Using Monte Carlo Simulation
to Make Hard Reliability Analyses Easy
podcast episode with speaker Chris Jackson
Sometimes the equations we need to model reliability are just so complicated that we simply avoid them, or use other equations that are simpler but model the wrong thing (see some of my earlier webinars!). But it doesn't have to be this way. Monte Carlo simulation is so simple that anyone who has access to Microsoft Excel can use it. What this means is that we don't need to use complicated equations (like those use to model things like switching systems) and instead can use Microsoft Excel to help us get approximate (but really accurate) answers. Sound interesting? Join us for this webinar!
This Accendo Reliability webinar was originally broadcast on 23 April 2024.
To view the recorded video/audio and PDF workbook of the event, visit the webinar page.
Additional content that may be of interest
When to do Monte Carlo episode
Use of Monte Carlo Simulation in Reliability episode
What is a Monte Carlo Analysis with Fred Schenkelberg episode
Reliability Modeling using Monte Carlo article
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Architecte.medieval300x300T.png)
Collecting and Analyzing Your Field Data
Let's explore where the data comes from and how to prepare for analysis. Plus, let's discuss some ways to look at your data initially.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Balustrade.XIVe_.siecle300x300T-298x300.png)
Time to Failure Data Analysis for Your Factory Equipment
For repairable items, the mean cumulative function and associated plots provide you with an estimate of the effectiveness of your repairs.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Contre.fort_.eglise.Saint_.Etienne.Beauvais300x300T.png)
Reliability Data
We will discuss the pros and cons of various sources. Plus, let's examine a few ways to use simulations or models.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Embrasure.Nuremberg.2300x300T.png)
Fundamentals of Weibull Analysis
The Weibull distribution is a versatile tool to analyze time to failure data. Like any tool, it could be wielded well or not so well.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Mantelet.protegeant.canon300x300T.png)
Fundamentals of Field Data Analysis
The design is done, the assembly process is working, now we can focus on answering the question: is the product hitting reliability targets?
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Contre.fort_.Bourgogne300x300T.png)
Weibull Probability Plotting
Data is only as useful as the information you derive. So would you like to take your Weibull probability plotting skills to the next level?
![hand drawing of the arc boutant glise of Sait Wulfrand Abbeville](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/565px-Arc.boutant.glise_.Saint_.Wulfrand.Abbeville300x300T.png)
Overview of Life Testing in Minitab
Minitab itself has many reliability functions available; this presentation covers the basics, including distributions, censoring, and fitting.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Archivolte.cathedrale.Bayeux300x300T.png)
The Survivorship Bias Principal
This webinar examines an important perspective. Its' so simple and has made many heroes in the data analysis world since Abraham Ward.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Clocher.cathedrale.Laon300x300T.png)
So what is up with this Bayesian' analysis stuff
Some of you may have heard of Bayesian analysis.' You may think this is something fancy that only universities do.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Contre.fort_.eglise.Allonne.2300x300T.png)
Reliability Analysis … now what? Part 2
Let's take a closer look at the concept of likelihood and it's role in an MCMC analysis. A powerful tool for data analysis.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Clocher.Thaon300x300T.png)
Reliability Analysis … now what? Part 3
This webinar is about how we use this thing called Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation (MCMC) to create this posse.'
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Clocher.rhenan.XIIe_.siecle300x300T.png)
Reliability Analysis … now what? Part 4
We show you how to get your computer to help you give useful reliability information to your boss, manager, director, or whoever.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Clocher.eglise.Lalande.Libourne.2300x300T.png)
Fundamentals of Interpreting Test Results
To create test results that are meaningful, we need to both design and execute the test well, then, interpret the results accurately.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Conduite.Vezelay300x300T.png)
How to Take the Guess Work out of Expert Judgment
there are ways you can suck out information from a group of experts in a quantifiable and remarkably accurate way.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Clocher.cathedrale.Rouen300x300T.png)
What do you see in a ‘Probability’ Plot?
A Weibull plot is a really useful way of quickly looking' at data and being able to see' really useful things.
![Drawing of Sommiers arcs ogives differentes hauteurs](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/330px-Sommiers.arcs_.ogives.differentes.hauteurs-300x300T.png)
What is WeiBayes Analysis?
WeiBayes is useful, and there are quite a few catches. Interested in learning about Weibayes analysis? Join us for this webinar.
The post Using Monte Carlo Simulation appeared first on Accendo Reliability.
183 epizódok
Fetch error
Hmmm there seems to be a problem fetching this series right now. Last successful fetch was on August 16, 2024 12:11 ()
What now? This series will be checked again in the next day. If you believe it should be working, please verify the publisher's feed link below is valid and includes actual episode links. You can contact support to request the feed be immediately fetched.
Manage episode 414785085 series 2359252
Using Monte Carlo Simulation
to Make Hard Reliability Analyses Easy
podcast episode with speaker Chris Jackson
Sometimes the equations we need to model reliability are just so complicated that we simply avoid them, or use other equations that are simpler but model the wrong thing (see some of my earlier webinars!). But it doesn't have to be this way. Monte Carlo simulation is so simple that anyone who has access to Microsoft Excel can use it. What this means is that we don't need to use complicated equations (like those use to model things like switching systems) and instead can use Microsoft Excel to help us get approximate (but really accurate) answers. Sound interesting? Join us for this webinar!
This Accendo Reliability webinar was originally broadcast on 23 April 2024.
To view the recorded video/audio and PDF workbook of the event, visit the webinar page.
Additional content that may be of interest
When to do Monte Carlo episode
Use of Monte Carlo Simulation in Reliability episode
What is a Monte Carlo Analysis with Fred Schenkelberg episode
Reliability Modeling using Monte Carlo article
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Architecte.medieval300x300T.png)
Collecting and Analyzing Your Field Data
Let's explore where the data comes from and how to prepare for analysis. Plus, let's discuss some ways to look at your data initially.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Balustrade.XIVe_.siecle300x300T-298x300.png)
Time to Failure Data Analysis for Your Factory Equipment
For repairable items, the mean cumulative function and associated plots provide you with an estimate of the effectiveness of your repairs.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Contre.fort_.eglise.Saint_.Etienne.Beauvais300x300T.png)
Reliability Data
We will discuss the pros and cons of various sources. Plus, let's examine a few ways to use simulations or models.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Embrasure.Nuremberg.2300x300T.png)
Fundamentals of Weibull Analysis
The Weibull distribution is a versatile tool to analyze time to failure data. Like any tool, it could be wielded well or not so well.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Mantelet.protegeant.canon300x300T.png)
Fundamentals of Field Data Analysis
The design is done, the assembly process is working, now we can focus on answering the question: is the product hitting reliability targets?
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Contre.fort_.Bourgogne300x300T.png)
Weibull Probability Plotting
Data is only as useful as the information you derive. So would you like to take your Weibull probability plotting skills to the next level?
![hand drawing of the arc boutant glise of Sait Wulfrand Abbeville](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/565px-Arc.boutant.glise_.Saint_.Wulfrand.Abbeville300x300T.png)
Overview of Life Testing in Minitab
Minitab itself has many reliability functions available; this presentation covers the basics, including distributions, censoring, and fitting.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Archivolte.cathedrale.Bayeux300x300T.png)
The Survivorship Bias Principal
This webinar examines an important perspective. Its' so simple and has made many heroes in the data analysis world since Abraham Ward.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Clocher.cathedrale.Laon300x300T.png)
So what is up with this Bayesian' analysis stuff
Some of you may have heard of Bayesian analysis.' You may think this is something fancy that only universities do.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Contre.fort_.eglise.Allonne.2300x300T.png)
Reliability Analysis … now what? Part 2
Let's take a closer look at the concept of likelihood and it's role in an MCMC analysis. A powerful tool for data analysis.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Clocher.Thaon300x300T.png)
Reliability Analysis … now what? Part 3
This webinar is about how we use this thing called Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation (MCMC) to create this posse.'
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Clocher.rhenan.XIIe_.siecle300x300T.png)
Reliability Analysis … now what? Part 4
We show you how to get your computer to help you give useful reliability information to your boss, manager, director, or whoever.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Clocher.eglise.Lalande.Libourne.2300x300T.png)
Fundamentals of Interpreting Test Results
To create test results that are meaningful, we need to both design and execute the test well, then, interpret the results accurately.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Conduite.Vezelay300x300T.png)
How to Take the Guess Work out of Expert Judgment
there are ways you can suck out information from a group of experts in a quantifiable and remarkably accurate way.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Clocher.cathedrale.Rouen300x300T.png)
What do you see in a ‘Probability’ Plot?
A Weibull plot is a really useful way of quickly looking' at data and being able to see' really useful things.
![Drawing of Sommiers arcs ogives differentes hauteurs](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/330px-Sommiers.arcs_.ogives.differentes.hauteurs-300x300T.png)
What is WeiBayes Analysis?
WeiBayes is useful, and there are quite a few catches. Interested in learning about Weibayes analysis? Join us for this webinar.
The post Using Monte Carlo Simulation appeared first on Accendo Reliability.
183 epizódok
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